主题：A Sentiment Analysis of COP Speech Corpora with Implications for Global South Adaptation Finance  

地点：旭日楼310室

时间：2026年6月11日（周四）下午15:00

主讲人：Jun Li

报告简介：Climate negotiations involve not only strategic bargaining but also emotional mobilization and discursive construction. This study investigates the emotional expression logic of the Group of 77 (G77) in multilateral climate talks. Using R-based text mining and a hybrid sentiment analysis model that combines SentiStrength with the EmoLex lexicon, we analyzed over 550 high-level speeches delivered by G77 member states at UN Climate Change Conferences from COP24 (2018) to COP29 (2024). Poisson and negative binomial regressions with cluster-robust standard errors were employed to assess the effects of G77 membership, climate vulnerability, and temporal trends on emotional expression. Over the study period, negotiating countries exhibited declining optimism, intensifying sadness and anger, and weakening trust and hope. Compared with non-members, G77 members expressed stronger trust and fear, reflecting a dual logic of internal trust-building and external threat perception. The G77 strategically deploys discourses of “shared vulnerability” and “crisis of trust” to construct institutional trust, while leveraging notions of “existential threat” and “urgency” for crisis mobilization. Emotional asymmetry between developed and developing countries remains a critical barrier to progress. Addressing this trust deficit requires high-emission nations to demonstrate verifiable mitigation achievements and calls on multilateral institutions to facilitate a discursive shift from crisis warning to resilience building.

主讲人简介：Jun Li，澳大利亚Curtin科技大学高级研究员，英国UCL与德国IASS研究所高级访问学者、 Advance in Climate Change Research（SCI 一区）副主编。主要研究领域为全球气候治理、能源与环境经济政策、合作与创新等。研究成果发表于Energy Policy，Climate Policy, Journal of Business Research, Environment and Development Economics, Journal of Technological Forecasting & Social Change，Energy Economics，世界经济与政治等国内外TOP期刊，并担任Nature等多个国际期刊匿名审稿人。主持澳大利亚ARC、欧盟FP7 、中国国家自然科学基金等国际科研合作项目。